Koray Aldemir Is the Best Value Pick in the $25K Fantasy Contest

Koray Aldemir won the 2021 WSOP Main Event for $8 million, and this summer he's producing a different kind of return: 301.1 fantasy points at a draft price of $18.10, the highest value-over-expectation of any player in the 5,017-team $25K Fantasy contest.

That's a +231.1 delta over the ODB isotonic-curve projection of 70 points at his price. No one else in the contest is close.

The Number That Matters

Forget raw points for a second. The $25K Fantasy contest at 25kfantasy.com is a salary-cap game, which means the scoreboard rewards efficiency, not just volume. The ODB curve expects a player drafted at $18.10 to produce roughly 70 points across the summer. Aldemir has posted 301.1.

That's a +231.1 delta over the ODB isotonic-curve projection of 70 points at his price.

To put that in context: Naoya Kihara sits second on the value leaderboard with a +222.4 delta (255.4 points at a $1.10 price), but Kihara was essentially a minimum-salary flier. Aldemir cost real cap space and still returned more than four times his expected output.

The third-highest delta belongs to Yueqi "Rich" Zhu at +196, also at the $1.00 floor. Quan Zhou (+160, $1.00) and Calvin Anderson (+149.4, $22.60) round out the top five. Aldemir is the only player in the top three who wasn't a basement-price lottery ticket.

Why Only 5.6% Ownership?

Here's what makes this genuinely surprising. Despite being a former Main Event champion, Aldemir appeared on just 281 of 5,017 teams, a 5.6% ownership rate. Compare that to the most popular picks in the contest: Patrick Leonard leads at 10.5% ownership (528 teams) with a $32.30 average price, and his average score sits at 90.3 points. Shaun Deeb is on 9% of teams at a steep $95.00 average price with 228.1 points.

Deeb's raw score is solid. But per dollar of cap space? Aldemir is in a different tier entirely. Deeb's cost-per-point works out to roughly $0.42. Aldemir's is $0.06.

Even Calvin Anderson, the consensus sharp pick at 9.1% ownership and a strong 221.9 average score, trails Aldemir by 79.2 points in raw production and nearly 82 points in delta.

The Bust Side of the Ledger

Aldemir's dominance looks even starker when you see what's happening at the other end of the value spectrum. Blaz Zerjav is the contest's biggest bust: drafted at $57.00 on average, he's returned just 4 points against a 104.5 expected projection. That's a -100.5 delta. David "ODB" Baker ($61.00 price, 25 points, -84.9 delta) and Michael Moncek ($88.70 price, 68 points, -83.9 delta) are bleeding cap dollars on every team that rosters them.

The lesson is clean. In a salary-cap contest, a mid-price pick who explodes is worth more than a premium pick who merely meets expectations. Aldemir didn't just meet expectations. He lapped the field.

What It Means for the Stretch Run

The 281 teams that rostered Aldemir are sitting on a structural advantage that compounds as the summer continues. Every point he adds is a point their competitors paid three or four times more to chase elsewhere. If Aldemir keeps cashing WSOP events at anything close to his current pace, those 5.6% of teams have a legitimate edge over the other 94.4%.

A Main Event title was the first $8 million return. This summer, for 281 fantasy managers, $18.10 might be the best investment in the contest.