Koray Aldemir: The $18.10 Draft Pick Producing Like a $70 Player

The 2021 WSOP Main Event champion was available at $18.10 in the $25K Fantasy draft, and Koray Aldemir is producing 231 points more than that price tag predicted. That's the second-largest value gap in the entire 5,015-team contest at 25kfantasy.com.

Let that sink in. A former Main Event champion, drafted at a price that implied roughly 70 points of production, is sitting at 301.1 average points. The ODB model expected him to be a bench filler. He's been a lineup anchor.

A former Main Event champion, drafted at a price that implied roughly 70 points of production, is sitting at 301.1 average points.

The Numbers That Matter

Aldemir's +231 delta trails only Naoya Kihara (+378.1), who was drafted at a near-minimum $1.10 and landed on just 136 teams. Kihara's value explosion is impressive, but it started from the absolute floor of the price curve, where even a single deep run creates a massive gap.

Aldemir's case is different. At $18.10, he carried real salary weight. Teams that rostered him made a deliberate choice to allocate cap space, and 281 teams (5.6% ownership) did exactly that. Those 281 teams are reaping the reward.

For context, consider the players drafted above him in price. Calvin Anderson went at $22.60 on average, roughly 25% more expensive, and is producing 225.5 points. That's a solid return, good for a +153 delta. But Aldemir is outscoring Anderson by 75.6 points while costing $4.50 less. The efficiency gap is enormous.

Why the Market Missed

Draft prices in $25K Fantasy reflect crowd consensus about a player's expected summer output. The crowd knew Aldemir was talented. You don't win the Main Event by accident. But $18.10 suggests the market treated him as a mid-tier asset, perhaps pricing in perceived selectivity in his schedule or a smaller volume of events compared to grinders who fire every open.

Whatever the reasoning, it was wrong. Aldemir's 301.1 average points indicate multiple cashes, likely including at least one deep run generating significant fantasy scoring. That level of production typically corresponds to a draft price north of $50.

What the Bust Side Looks Like

Aldemir's outperformance looks even sharper when you compare it to the worst value in the contest. Michael Moncek was drafted at $88.70 on average, the costliest bust in the field, and has produced just 69.3 points against an expected 151.9. That's a delta of -82.6. Teams that paired Aldemir with a player like Moncek still came out ahead on the Aldemir slot alone.

The full top-five value beats tell a story about where the market was most inefficient this summer:

• Naoya Kihara: $1.10 price, 411.1 pts, +378.1 delta
• Koray Aldemir: $18.10 price, 301.1 pts, +231 delta
• Yueqi "Rich" Zhu: $1.00 price, 229 pts, +196 delta
• Quan Zhou: $1.00 price, 193 pts, +160 delta
• Calvin Anderson: $22.60 price, 225.5 pts, +153 delta

Three of those five were minimum-price fliers. Aldemir and Anderson are the only ones who carried meaningful salary cost, and Aldemir delivered at a higher clip for a lower price.

The Takeaway for Your Roster

If you're in a $25K Fantasy league that allows trades or late adjustments, Aldemir's production curve suggests he isn't slowing down. At 5.6% ownership, he remains a contrarian hold. The 94.4% of teams without him are paying the opportunity cost every time he cashes.

The 2021 Main Event champion priced like a role player. Producing like a star. That's the definition of a value beat.