Patrick Leonard Is a Chalk Trap — Sell Him

Patrick Leonard is on 10.5% of rosters in the $25K Fantasy contest — 529 teams out of 5,017 — and he's averaging 89.7 points at a $32.30 price tag.

That's the single highest ownership rate in the field. It's also, per the ODB isotonic-curve model, a terrible number.

The Math That Should Scare You

Let me put Leonard's 89.7 average score in context. Koray Aldemir is drafted at an average price of $18.10 — roughly 56% of Leonard's cost — and is averaging 301.1 points. That's a +231.1 delta against expected value at his price point. Aldemir is on just 5.6% of teams.

Naoya Kihara costs $1.10 and is averaging 254.4 points. Yueqi "Rich" Zhu costs $1.00 and is averaging 229 points. Both of those minimum-salary dart throws are outscoring Leonard by roughly 2.5x.

Koray Aldemir is drafted at 56% of Leonard's cost and is outscoring him by more than three-to-one.

What the Counter-Argument Gets Wrong

Yes, I know: Leonard grinds big-field NLH, he'll fire multiple bullets, and one deep run changes the whole picture. That's the narrative 529 teams bought into. But that logic applies to dozens of players in the $20–$40 price range who aren't carrying 10.5% ownership — players like Bryce Yockey ($37.70, averaging 142.6 points) or Brian Rast ($40.60, averaging 189.2 points). Leonard isn't offering upside that Yockey and Rast don't also offer. He's offering correlation — with 10% of the field.

Why Correlation Is the Real Problem

In a 5,017-team contest, you don't win by being right the same way 528 other people are right. You win by being right differently. Every dollar you spend on Leonard at his current production is a dollar you're spending to look like the field. If he heats up, great — you and 10% of the contest move up together. If he stays cold, you're sunk alongside 529 teams running the same dead weight.

Calvin Anderson ($22.60, 139.6 average, 9.1% ownership) is nearly as chalky but at least delivering points above his price curve. Shaun Deeb ($95, 220.8 average, 9.0% ownership) is expensive but productive. Leonard is the worst of both: high ownership AND underperformance.

If your format lets you sell exposure or swap rosters, Leonard is the clearest fade in the contest right now. Reallocate that $32.30 toward low-owned value — Aldemir at 5.6%, or a minimum-salary flier who's already lapping him on the scoreboard.

The field loves Leonard. That's exactly why you shouldn't.