The $25K Fantasy's Most Popular Pick Is Its Worst Value

Patrick Leonard is on 528 of 5,017 rosters, making him the most-owned player in the 2026 $25K Fantasy contest, and he's returning 90.3 points at a $32.30 average draft price. That works out to 2.80 points per dollar. The plurality of the field is paying premium for mediocrity.

Meanwhile, Koray Aldemir is sitting on just 281 rosters at an $18.10 average price, quietly returning 301.1 points. That's 16.64 points per dollar. The efficiency gap between the contest's most popular pick and its best value play is 5.9x.

This isn't a hot take. It's the ODB isotonic-curve math, and the curve doesn't care about name recognition.

The efficiency gap between the contest's most popular pick and its best value play is 5.9x.

The Chalk Board

Here's what the eight most-owned players look like right now, sorted by ownership:

| Player | Own% | Teams | Avg Price | Avg Score | Pts/$ | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Patrick Leonard | 10.5% | 528 | $32.30 | 90.3 | 2.80 | | Calvin Anderson | 9.1% | 457 | $22.60 | 221.9 | 9.82 | | Phillip Hui | 9.1% | 455 | $20.60 | 68.1 | 3.31 | | Shaun Deeb | 9.0% | 453 | $95.00 | 228.1 | 2.40 | | Ari Engel | 8.6% | 433 | $12.50 | 93.6 | 7.49 | | Scott Seiver | 8.5% | 428 | $55.20 | 173.9 | 3.15 | | Bryce Yockey | 7.3% | 368 | $37.70 | 143.4 | 3.80 | | Brian Rast | 7.3% | 367 | $40.80 | 188.9 | 4.63 |

Two names jump off the page for the wrong reasons. Leonard and Hui are the highest-owned and lowest-returning players in the top eight. Combined, they sit on 983 rosters (19.6% of the field) and average a blended 3.03 points per dollar.

Calvin Anderson, by contrast, is the chalk pick that's actually working. At 9.1% ownership and a $22.60 price tag, his 221.9 points make him the rare case where the crowd and the math agree.

Where the Real Value Lives

The ODB model compares each player's actual score to the expected output at their draft price, using an isotonic regression curve fitted across the full player pool. A positive delta means the player beat the curve. A negative delta means you overpaid.

The top five value plays in the contest:

| Player | Own% | Avg Price | Actual Pts | Expected Pts | Delta | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Koray Aldemir | 5.6% | $18.10 | 301.1 | 70.0 | +231.1 | | Naoya Kihara | 2.7% | $1.10 | 255.4 | 33.0 | +222.4 | | Yueqi "Rich" Zhu | 0.6% | $1.00 | 229.0 | 33.0 | +196.0 | | Quan Zhou | 1.1% | $1.00 | 193.0 | 33.0 | +160.0 | | Calvin Anderson | 9.1% | $22.60 | 221.9 | 72.5 | +149.4 |

Aldemir is beating his expected output by 231.1 points. Kihara, drafted at $1.10 on most rosters, has returned 255.4 points against an expected 33. That's a 7.7x multiple on expectation, and only 2.7% of the field owns him.

The three cheapest value plays (Kihara, Zhu, Zhou) all came in at floor-level prices, $1.00 to $1.10. Their combined ownership is 4.4%. Fewer than 220 teams out of 5,017 have any of them.

The Bust Side

Overpaying isn't just a Leonard problem. The five worst busts by ODB delta:

| Player | Own% | Avg Price | Actual Pts | Expected Pts | Delta | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Blaz Zerjav | 0.8% | $57.00 | 4.0 | 104.5 | −100.5 | | David "ODB" Baker | 0.8% | $61.00 | 25.0 | 109.9 | −84.9 | | Michael Moncek | 2.0% | $88.70 | 68.0 | 151.9 | −83.9 | | Aditya Prasetyo | 0.2% | $38.00 | 17.0 | 89.0 | −72.0 | | Eugene Katchalov | 0.4% | $22.20 | 16.2 | 72.5 | −56.3 |

Zerjav leads the bust board at −100.5 against expectation: a $57 price tag that delivered 4 points. The saving grace for most of the field is that these busts carry low ownership. Moncek at 2.0% is the only one above 1%.

Leonard doesn't appear on the formal bust list because his expected output at $32.30 was only around 85 points, and he's returned 90.3. He's barely clearing the curve. The problem isn't that he's a bust. It's that 10.5% of the field locked salary into a player who's performing to the curve at a price point where the upside ceiling is capped.

The Takeaway

Ownership and value are running in opposite directions across the $25K Fantasy field. The five best value plays average 3.0% ownership. The two worst-performing chalk picks average 9.8%.

If you're looking for differentiation in the standings, the numbers point to an obvious place: sell the name, buy the price.

Methodology: Points-per-dollar calculated as avg_score / avg_price. ODB delta derived from an isotonic regression curve fitted to all drafted players' average price and final score, per the 25kfantasy.com contest data snapshot generated June 22, 2026. Ownership percentages reflect total rosters (5,017). All data sourced from Charlotte's fantasy_rosters and fantasy_scores tables.