Viktor Blom Is the Biggest Value Beat in $25K Fantasy

Viktor Blom is returning 4.2x his expected fantasy points at his average draft price, and only 2.6% of teams own him.

Across 3,815 rosters in the $25K Fantasy contest, Blom sits on just 98 teams. His average draft price: $21.60. His average score: 303.8 points. ODB's isotonic curve says a player at that price should produce about 72.5 points. Blom is beating that number by 231.3, the largest positive delta of any rostered player in the contest.

He's not a secret. He's Viktor Blom. And yet 97.4% of the field passed on him.

Blom is beating his expected output by 231.3 points, the largest positive delta of any rostered player in the contest.

The Top Five Value Beats

The full leaderboard of overperformers tells a clear story: price tags lied.

Koray Aldemir nearly matches Blom's raw delta at +231.1, with 301.1 points scored against an expected 70 at his $18.10 average price. Aldemir appears on 281 teams (7.4% ownership), making him the most-owned player on this list by a wide margin. If you drafted him, you got the same surplus as Blom but paid less to get it.

Klemens Roiter is the deep-cut special. Only 23 teams (0.6%) rostered him at $9.00. He scored 277 points against an expected 56.4, good for a +220.6 delta. At that price, he's essentially free production.

Andrew Ostapchenko (13 teams, 0.3% ownership) and Yueqi "Rich" Zhu (29 teams, 0.8% ownership) were both minimum-price picks at $1.00, producing 233.1 and 229.0 points respectively against a baseline expectation of 33. Both turned a throwaway roster slot into 200+ points of surplus.

The Bust Side

For every Blom, there's a Michael Moncek.

Moncek was drafted at an average price of $85.10, which carries an expected return of 151.9 points. He scored 68. That's a -83.9 delta, the worst bust in the contest. He's on 94 teams (2.5% ownership), so the damage is concentrated but real.

Bryn Kenney ($39.50 avg price, 22 teams) scored just 20.7 points against an expected 93.3, a -72.6 gap. Aditya Prasetyo is nearly identical: $38.00 price, 17 points scored, -72.0 delta.

Further down the bust list, Eugene Katchalov ($22.20 price, 16.2 points scored, -56.3 delta) and Konstantin Maslak ($12.70 price, 0.9 points scored, -55.5 delta) round out the bottom five. Maslak's 0.9-point return on a $12.70 investment is the single worst points-per-dollar ratio in the data.

What This Means for Your Roster

The value gap data exposes a structural inefficiency in how the field is drafting. Blom and Aldemir are producing at nearly identical surplus levels, but Blom's ownership is roughly one-third of Aldemir's. If you're building a contrarian roster designed to differentiate from the field, Blom at 2.6% gives you almost the same ceiling as Aldemir at 7.4% with far less duplicate exposure.

The minimum-price tier is also clearly underutilized. Ostapchenko and Zhu both cleared 200+ points at $1.00, yet combined they sit on only 42 of 3,815 teams. That's 1.1% of the field accessing an extra 200 points for the lowest possible cost.

The bust data carries its own lesson. The three worst negative deltas all come from players drafted above $38. Expensive picks carry the most variance, and when they miss, the hole is nearly impossible to fill elsewhere on your roster.

Price is a prediction. The scoreboard doesn't care what you paid.