Build a $200 lineup.
Score it on real history.
Pick eight WSOP players under the ODB Fantasy salary cap plus one free bonus. Every roster swap replays every actual ODB Fantasy auction since 2017 — same prices, same scoring rules, same human-submitted field — and shows you which years you would have cashed and which years you would have bricked.
We re-ran the model with strict information cutoffs.
Three cashes. Zero crowns.
For every year from 2017 to 2025, we built the lineup using only data from the prior three years — no ridge regression, no hindsight on who'd break out, no information from year Y or beyond. Picked from that year's actual ODB Fantasy pool at that year's actual prices. Scored against the real human-submitted field with that year's real rules. Here are the seven lineups and the seven verdicts.
Draft your first player and the receipt fills in. Each addition replays thirteen years of results and updates these numbers in real time.
Your Lineup
The Pool
The Model's Top 8
If the salary cap didn't exist, these are the eight names the model believes will outscore every other player this summer.
Best Values
The model's favorite sleepers — players whose projected output dwarfs their 2026 draft price.
Past Champions
Fantasy Results
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How This Works
Two projection models, one Lab. The lineup builder above scores against a ridge-regression projection trained on 2017-2025 results — useful for choosing a 2026 team because it uses everything we know today, but it cannot honestly “backtest” recent years because those years are in its training set.
For the credibility test we built a separate blind backtest: every year's lineup is picked using only data from the three years before it (a Marcel-style projector — no ridge regression, no future leakage), then scored against that year's actual ODB Fantasy field. Result: 3 cashes in 7 years, +143% ROI, zero outright wins. The model has real signal — top third of the field on average — but it isn't a single-entry crown machine.
The data underneath is the same pipeline Charlotte uses to power her WSOP intelligence tools — 742,000+ entries since 2024, 87,000 unique players, every event, every bullet, every cash. Live chip counts during the festival refresh every five minutes. The lineup format mirrors the actual ODB Fantasy contest (8 primary under $200 cap + 1 free bonus from the curated bonus pool — the rule has held every year since 2017). The Lab is free; email-gated only on share.